Economics in crisis

The Economist contains an article on the crisis of economics in the wake of the global financial crisis. Its particular reference points are macroeconomics and financial economics, and in particular the "rational expectations" school and the "efficient markets hypothesis". The critiques of Paul Krugman and Brad de Long, amoing others, have been developed in the Australian context by economist and blogger John Quiggan.

OF ALL the economic bubbles that have been pricked, few have burst more spectacularly than the reputation of economics itself. A few years ago, the dismal science was being acclaimed as a way of explaining ever more forms of human behaviour, from drug-dealing to sumo-wrestling. Wall Street ransacked the best universities for game theorists and options modellers ...

In the wake of the biggest economic calamity in 80 years that reputation has taken a beating. In the public mind an arrogant profession has been humbled. Though economists are still at the centre of the policy debate—think of Ben Bernanke or Larry Summers in America or Mervyn King in Britain—their pronouncements are viewed with more scepticism than before. The profession itself is suffering from guilt and rancour. In a recent lecture, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel prize in economics in 2008, argued that much of the past 30 years of macroeconomics was “spectacularly useless at best, and positively harmful at worst.” Barry Eichengreen, a prominent American economic historian, says the crisis has “cast into doubt much of what we thought we knew about economics.” ...

two central parts of the discipline—macroeconomics and financial economics—are now, rightly, being severely re-examined (see article, article). There are three main critiques: that macro and financial economists helped cause the crisis, that they failed to spot it, and that they have no idea how to fix it.

Still watching California

The issue of whether the US state of California will go the way of Iceland is still on the agenda.

THE state of California, one of the top 10 largest economies in the world, will run out of money by February, causing "financial Armageddon", according to dire new budget projections.

As of yesterday, the state's debts were mounting at a rate of $US1.7 million ($2.54 million) per hour.

The de facto insolvency of the US's most populous state - home to such economic engines as Silicon Valley, the Central Valley agricultural region, Hollywood, Napa Valley, the Long Beach ports, and the defence research and production facilities of Los Angeles, San Diego, and the Mojave Desert - would represent a new scale of catastrophe in a year that has seen financial markets and economies across the world implode.

Bill Lockyer, the Treasurer of California, has given warning that $US5 billion of public works projects, including road and school construction, will have to be cancelled because the state's lenders are worried about an impending Iceland-style bankruptcy. California - which has a GDP of $US1.7 trillion - already has the worst credit rating of any of the US's 50 states.

"Without a budget solution, state financing of infrastructure projects will stop. It's as simple, and dire, as that," Mr Lockyer said this week.

For California's Republican Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, the crisis represents a humiliating final act to his second term. Mr Schwarzenegger, 61, came to power in 2003 because of an almost identical financial calamity, which resulted in his Democratic predecessor, Gray Davis, being "recalled" from office.

At the time Mr Schwarzenegger promised an end to California's tax-and-spend policies and runaway expenses, yet over the past four years of his administration the state's budget has grown by 40 per cent to $US144.5 billion. Thanks to the housing crash, recession and credit crunch, the state can no longer afford this with tax collection.

As the crisis continues and California's credit rating deteriorates, the cost to the state of borrowing keeps rising - a process that could ultimately cause the same kind of deadly spiral that this week tipped the Chicago-based publisher of the Los Angeles Times into bankruptcy.

Mr Schwarzenegger is proposing the same kind of emergency tax rises that in 2003 turned Mr Davis into a pariah. He has suggested a 1.5 per cent increase in sales tax - the equivalent of Britain's VAT - and a tripling of the car tax. When Mr Schwarzenegger first ran for office, he did so on a promise to a revoke a similar car tax increase proposed by his predecessor.

So far, however, Republicans in California's legislature have refused to go along with the proposals and Democrats have refused to cut government programmes, hence the stalemate.

Mr Schwarzenegger has declared a "fiscal emergency" to keep California's legislature in session until a solution can be found.

"When you have a crisis the most important thing is to make a decision," said a clearly frustrated Mr Schwarzenegger at a hastily called press conference on Wednesday. There, he presented an electronic display showing how much the deficit is growing in real time: $US470 per second, $US1.7 million per hour, and $US40 million per day.

He put it outside his office in Sacramento in an attempt to get the state's legislators to reach some kind of agreement. "The worst thing is not to make a decision," he said. "The most costly thing we can do is not to take any action."

California's biggest problem is the precipitous decline in tax revenues over the past year. The state's property taxes - the equivalent of Britain's council taxes - are based on the value of a house when it was first bought, and can then rise by no more than 2 per cent a year. This means that by far the most tax revenues come from new property sales, and these have all but dried up.

Adding to the problem is the fact that many homeowners who bought during the bubble years are now successfully appealing against their property taxes, using evidence that the value of their home is less than it was when they purchased it.

Tax revenues have also been hit by the global recession.

Watch California

As we go into the next phase of the financial crisis after the $840 billion bailout package was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives on 3 October, a few hints are emerging that one place to watch is California. The state has been struggling financially for some months with a deadlock on Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's budget only just being resolevd, and it is the epicentre of the sub-prime mortgage crisis and house repossessions.

This story from MSNBC suggests that it may have troubles paying it state employees this month (picked up originally from Dollars and Sense):

Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger and California's top finance officials reacted cautiously Friday to congressional approval of the $700 billion Wall Street bailout package.

They have been worried that the credit market will hurt the state's ability to get short-term loans to cover basic operating expenses, a step California takes each fall until the bulk of its tax revenue arrives in the spring.

Even with the bailout plan passing, Schwarzenegger predicted a difficult path ahead in the financial markets.

"California's not out of the woods yet," he said during a news conference in San Diego, noting that California soon will begin seeking loans on the open market. "It will be difficult. We will be going through challenges in the future."

He said he would convene a meeting on Wednesday with the four legislative leaders to discuss the state's financial situation.

While California seeks short-term loans every year, the situation is especially precarious this year because the nation's credit market has seized up under the strains of the housing-related economic meltdown and because state lawmakers delayed passing a budget for nearly three months.

The record-long budget impasse prevented the state from going to the bond market sooner.

On Thursday, Schwarzenegger sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson asking the federal government to protect California if the state is unable to secure financing for routine borrowing.

"Absent a clear resolution to this financial crisis that restores confidence and liquidity to the credit markets, California and other states may be unable to obtain the necessary level of financing to maintain government operations and may be forced to turn to the Federal Treasury for short-term financing," Schwarzenegger wrote.

A spokesman for the state treasurer's office said pursuing a federal loan is just one option if the credit markets do not respond as Paulson predicted. California also will seek private loans within the next few weeks, spokesman Tom Dresslar said.

Unless it can secure those loans, the state is expected to run out of cash Oct. 29.

Earlier this week, the controller's office said California will need to borrow $7 billion to pay its expenses throughout the fiscal year, which ends June 30.

"We hope that (the bailout plan) will be sufficient to loosen the tight credit market so that the treasurer can issue the $7 billion we need," said Hallye Jordan, a spokeswoman for the state controller.

The giant sucking sound

What happened on the Dow Jones at Wall Street after the US Congress rejected the $700 billion bailout bill.

Analysis from Stephen Pearlstein from The Washington Post here.

Ann Pettifor calls for a return to Keynesian financial management principles on The Guardian. See here.